ENVOY MORTGAGE Blog

April 25th, 2011 1:35 PM
This Week; the major focus this week is the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Always a key focus for the financial markets, this week even more so as for the first time in history the Fed chief will hold a 45 minute press conference after the meeting. Normally the FOMC releases a short policy statement after the meeting at 2:15 pm; this meeting will conclude with the statement at 12:30 then at 2:15 Bernanke will hold his news conference allowing reporters to ask questions. The Fed is trying to increase certainty and add stability in markets removing much of the speculation about what the Fed really means.

Treasury will auction %99B of 2's, 5's and 7 yr notes Tuesday through Thursday, selling the 5 yr note sandwiched between the Fed's policy statement at 12:30 and Bernanke's press conference at 2:15 on Wednesday. Economic data has new home sales Monday, weekly claims on Thursday along with the first look at Q1 GDP also on Thursday. This week also has a huge number of Q1 earnings reports that will set the tone for the equity markets. So far earnings overall have generally beaten Street estimates. Technically the bond and mortgage markets are looking good as inflation worries fade and the dollar declining. We don't expect much change in mortgage prices until Wednesday's FOMC meeting.

Posted by Gary Bussard on April 25th, 2011 1:35 PMPost a Comment (0)

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April 18th, 2011 1:46 PM
Mark Twain once said, “I shall never use profanity except in discussing house rent and taxes.” Today, many consumers can cross taxes off their to-do list for the year. However, home financing is always a topic of concern.

There is great news, though. When consumers file taxes, they often receive refunds. Many of them will use the extra money as a down payment for a new home. In addition, home prices & mortgage rates continue to offer exceptional value. As always, I'm here to help – and to secure the most affordable financing for your customers. Let me know if there's anything I can do for you.

Sincerely,

Gary Bussard
gbussard@envoymortgage.com

Mortgage Rates Improve on Inflation Data
Highlights Average 30 yr fixed rate Stocks (Weekly)
The Beige Book reported that economic activity "generally continued to improve"

Capacity Utilization rose to the highest level since August 2008

The sovereign debt of Ireland was downgraded again

Gold prices reached a record high above $1,480 per ounce

On target inflation data and strong demand for the longer-term Treasury auctions were favorable for mortgage rates last week. The other major economic reports contained few surprises. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week lower.

In recent weeks, the primary influence for mortgage rates has shifted from global events in Japan and the Middle East to the outlook for inflation. Last week's rate hikes in Europe and China to fight inflation raised concerns that the Federal Reserve was falling behind with its lack of tightening, and mortgage rates moved higher. Last week's tame inflation data eased those concerns, however, and mortgage rates improved. The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% from February, matching the consensus forecast, and was 2.7% higher than one year ago. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased at a low 1.2% annual rate, which was a little lower than expected.

Rising commodity prices have focused attention on the distinction between overall inflation levels and core inflation levels. Core inflation excludes the volatile food and energy components, so it is often viewed as a better indicator of short-term inflation trends by economists and Fed officials. While consumers certainly struggle with higher gas prices, longer-term inflation trends generally are more influenced by other factors such as wages and housing costs, which recently have been increasing very slowly. In short, stronger than expected demand for commodities and violence in the Middle East have pushed energy prices significantly higher, but Fed officials forecast that this represents a temporary increase in overall inflation levels. Commodity prices are not expected to climb at this pace indefinitely. If food and energy prices stabilize, then the gap between overall and core inflation levels will likely shrink.

This week will be shortened by a holiday and will be a light week for economic data. Housing Starts will be released on Tuesday. Existing Home Sales will come out on Wednesday. Philly Fed and Leading Indicators are scheduled for Thursday. Mortgage markets will close early on Thursday and will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday.

The market commentary material provided is from a third party vendor, MBSQuoteline, and is not necessarily the opinions of the sender or the organization they represent. This information is intended for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Additionally, the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, but there is no guarantee it is without error.


Posted by Gary Bussard on April 18th, 2011 1:46 PMPost a Comment (0)

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This Week; is Holy Week. Trade likely will be quiet with the religious holiday. Most all of the data points this week are centered on the housing sector; starts and permits for Mar, new and existing home sales, the NAHB housing market index Monday and the FHFA housing price index on Thursday. The only other releases are weekly claims on Thursday and the and the April Philadelphia Fed business index also on Friday. That's it for the week. Markets closed on Friday.

Until a week ago the overwhelming consensus in the markets was that the US economy would have a strong Q1 and optimism for the rest of the year was being touted as continued improvement. Over the past week investors were beginning to re-think the economic outlook and lowering expectations. It started with the IMF saying it is revising lower GDP Q1 growth from 2.0% to 1.5%; markets had accepted growth in Q1 at +3.0%. The Fed's Beige Book out last week, while remaining optimistic, showed indications that growth isn't as powerful as markets were thinking. The National Federation of Independent Business overall index fell in April, taking the optimism that had improved since last Oct totally away. Small businesses account for the majority of jobs. This is also earnings season with companies reporting Q1; so far earnings have been a little disappointing.

Consumer spending declining, until recently, have been ignored by investors. Even with gasoline and food prices increasing markets generally didn't pay much attention----until last week. $4.00+ gasoline and rapidly increasing food prices will, as we have continued to mention, slow consumer spending. Bernanke out there saying the increase in energy and commodity prices are "transitory" may not be; markets beginning to understand that. With consumer spending less than expected and the housing markets still showing no signs of stabilizing, let alone improving, investors are getting a little nervous.

Posted by Gary Bussard on April 18th, 2011 1:44 PMPost a Comment (0)

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April 6th, 2011 10:12 AM
The equity markets opened stronger this morning resulting in some minor price declines in treasuries and mortgages. Crude oil high as is gold and silver, precious metals continue to increase on inflation fears and continued concerns about major currencies. Demand for precious metals strengthened over the past week as investors sought a shelter to protect their wealth against the conflict in Libya, the nuclear crisis in Japan and European sovereign debt concerns.

No economic releases today; the DJIA opened +39 at 9:30 keeping a little pressure on the bond and mortgage markets. The 10 yr now at 3.51% right at its near term support; for the past eight days the 10 yr has moved on a tight 10 bp range (3.40% to 3.50%). The wider and more important support for the note comes at 3.60%.

More mixed thoughts from another Fed official on ending QE and increasing the FF rate. Atlanta Fed Pres Lockhart said he doesn’t expect the central bank to tighten U.S. monetary policy by the end of the year with inflation low and the economic recovery fragile. “I wouldn’t rule it out entirely, but at this stage I personally am not leaning in the direction of thinking that is absolutely required.”

Mortgage applications decreased 2.0% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 1, 2011. The Refinance Index decreased 6.2% to its lowest level since February 25, 2011. The Government Purchase Index increased 10.3% to its highest level since May 7, 2010. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 7.0% compared with the previous week and was 16.8% lower than the same week one year ago. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 1.9%. The four week moving average is up 0.9% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is down 3.2% for the Refinance Index. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 61.2 percent of total applications from 64.3 percent the previous week. This is the lowest refinance share since May 7, 2010. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 6.1% from 5.7% of total applications from the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.93% from 4.92%, with points decreasing to 0.70 from 0.83 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.14% from 4.16%, with points increasing to 1.09 from 0.99 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans.

The rest of the session today will be watching stock indexes; as long as they are improved the bond market doesn't have much reason to improve. Mortgage prices likely to stay weak also.


Posted by Gary Bussard on April 6th, 2011 10:12 AMPost a Comment (0)

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April 5th, 2011 1:49 PM
Treasuries and mortgages opened a little better this morning taking the 10 yr treasury down to 3.40% its near term resistance; the stock market indexes in pre-market trade were showing a lower opening. Mortgage prices up slightly at 9:00 about where they were at 9:30 yesterday; but by 9:15 mortgage prices were declining along with the 10 yr which once again failed at 3.40%. 9:15 30 yr mtg price -3/32 (.09 bp), the 10 -4.32 3.44% +1 bp. At 9:30 the DJIA opened -25, the 10 yr -5/32 and mortgage prices -5/32 (.15 bp).



Last night in a speech in Atlanta (Stone Mountain) Bernanke said that the recent rise in commodity prices will likely be "transitory" and prices will fall back. He went on to say though that the Fed must be watched “extremely closely,” encouraging bets that interest rates may be raised sooner than previously expected. The remark that commodity prices and energy prices will back down is somewhat surprising although he couched it with the famous comment that the Fed will watch and react accordingly if inflation creeps into end prices. Bernanke’s comments echoed his March 1 statement to lawmakers that Fed officials were “prepared to respond as necessary” to inflationary pressures. The Federal Open Market Committee, said following its March 15 meeting that it “will pay close attention” to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.



Bernanke's comments in his speech shows the increasing division within the Fed about how long to continue keeping the FF rate at zero to +0.25% as it has since 2008; for the last couple of weeks one after another Fed officials have increasingly warned the US should end its tightening and begin to increase rates soon. Bernanke saying present inflation pressures in commodities and energy prices being "transitory" is his apparent response to the increasing concerns within the Fed. Bernanke remains convinced the economic recovery is not yet on solid ground, remarks like he made last night may be his way of jaw-boning the bond market from sending prices lower and yields higher. We don't rally have to say it but, if rates increase even a little the depressed housing sector will be further constrained. Will the markets buy Bernanke's "transitory" view about inflation? Back in the day he also said the sub prime mortgage markets were likely to be contained and managed. Is the US immune to inflation? Brazil, Russia, China, India, likely the European Union on Thursday and emerging market countries all increasing rates. Answer: No.



China increased its interest rates last night by 0.25% for the fourth time since the global financial crisis to limit the risk of asset price bubbles in the world’s fastest-growing major economy. The one-year lending rate will increase to 6.31% from 6.06% effective tomorrow. The one-year deposit rate will rise to 3.25% from 3.0%. On Thursday the ECB is widely expected to increase its base rate to head off inflation in the region which is now at +2.6% and higher than its 2.0% target rate on inflation.



Crude oil is lower today after reaching 30 month highs; with China increasing interest rates and oil supplies seen as increasing oil is a little lower today. That said, it is highly unlikely the demand for oil will decline regardless of increasing rates and China trying to slow its economy. Oil supplies won't likely increase enough to offset the coming summer driving season and the Mideast oil world is far from stable.



The only economic report today; at 10:00 the March ISM services sector index expected at 59.5 frm 59.7. As released the index fell to 57.3; the new orders component 64.1 frm 64.4, prices pd at 72.1 frm 73.3 and employment at 53.7 frm 55.6. The repot not as good as was expected, the reaction is support the bond market and adding additional selling in equity indexes.



Two Fedsters out today: Kocherlakota of Minneapolis and Plosser of Philadelphia; (12;45 for Kocherlakota and 1:30 for Plosser)



Later today at 2:00 the minutes from the March 15th FOMC meeting will be released. Possibly a little more detail on the debate over QE and inflation expectations.



Once again the bellwether 10 yr, driver for mortgage rates, failed on its attempt to move below 3.40% this morning. The 10 has recently found a home trading between 3.40% and 3.50%, not much of a range but keeping mortgage rates stable. We remain bearish for the direction of interest rates on the wider perspective. For all of Bernanke's confidence inflation won't get a toehold, the Fed will end QE and the FF rate will likely be increased before the end of the 3rd Q.




Posted by Gary Bussard on April 5th, 2011 1:49 PMPost a Comment (0)

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March employment report was better than expectations; non-farm jobs were expected to have increased 195K to 200K, as reported jobs increased 216K the biggest monthly increase since May 2010. Non-farm private jobs also better, up 203K, the unemployment rate fell to 8.8% from 8.9% in Feb as more potential workers dropped out of looking for a job; if discouraged workers are added in the unemployment rate is about 15.5%. Average hourly earnings were unchanged in March.

Treasuries and mortgages were already lower in price prior to the 8:30 employment report, down 7/32 (.22 bp) for mortgages; after the report mortgage prices ticked a little lower to -11/32 (.34 bp) at 8:45 with the 10 yr note at 3.51% slightly higher (+4 bp) and once again testing the psychological 3.50% level that held earlier this week. Although employment was better than thought it wasn't that much better than what markets were expecting. By 9:15 this morning mortgage prices had improved from their lowest prices but still lower; the 10 yr note moved back to 3.49% where support was holding the yield.

At 9:30 the DJIA opened +50, the 10 yr 3.50% +3 bp and mortgage prices -7/32 (.22 bp).

More key data at 10:00; March ISM manufacturing index expected at 61.4 hit at 61.2. Subcomponents; prices pd index 85.0 frm 82.0, new orders at 63.3 frm 68.0 and employment at 63.0 frm 64.5. After the employment report earlier we cam ignore the employment index, new orders still strong above 50 but the focus has to be on the prices pd index that continues to increase. Businesses are beginning to pass along price increases after a year of holding as commodity prices have increased. The reaction to the report in the markets; no change in rates or the stock market.

Feb construction spending at 10:00, expected down 0.7% fell 1.4% after declining 1.8% in Jan. Not much interest in the decline, weather a factor in winter but we know construction is the lager of all lagging data points.

Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser out commenting on the employment report saying the strengthening economy may cause the Fed to end its QE 2 sooner than the end of June. One more Fed official increasingly concerned about inflationary impact. Yields on two-year notes increased five basis points to 0.87%, the 2 is more sensitive to inflation fears in the short run but it is the long end that will feel it also as investors will demand higher yields to offset any concerns that inflation would erode returns if it actually increases. The Fed wants inflation slightly higher to 2.0% frm 1.5% presently but unfortunately for the Fed it can't control inflation that precisely. The two-year note yield touched 0.89%, the highest level since May 2010, and was headed for a weekly increase of 14 basis points before settling back a little.

The US dollar is roaring ahead this morning on the better employment report and increasing belief US rates are about to increase as the Fed falls in line with most other central banks that have or are about to increase base lending rates. The impact today is a big decline in gold and stable oil prices that were higher on the day prior to the 8:30 employment report.


Posted by Gary Bussard on April 1st, 2011 12:05 PMPost a Comment (0)

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April 1st, 2011 12:02 PM

IRS Audit Red Flags: The Dirty Dozen
Here are twelve hot spots on your return that can raise the chances of scrutiny by the IRS.

Ever wonder why some tax returns are audited by the IRS while most are ignored? Well, there's a whole host of reasons to this age-old question. The IRS audits only about 1% of all individual tax returns annually. The agency doesn't have enough personnel and resources to examine each and every tax return filed during a year. So the odds are pretty low that your return will be picked for an audit. And of course, the only reason filers should worry about an audit is if they are cheating on their taxes.

However, the chances of you being audited or otherwise hearing from the IRS can increase depending upon various factors, including whether you omitted income, the types of deductions or losses claimed, certain credits taken, foreign asset holdings and math errors, just to name a few. Although there's no sure way to avoid an IRS audit, you should be aware of red flags that could increase your chance of drawing some unwanted attention from the IRS. Here are the 12 most important ones:

1. Failure to report all taxable income.
The IRS receives copies of all 1099s and W-2s that you receive during a year, so make sure that you report all required income on your tax return. The IRS computers are pretty good at matching these forms received with the income shown on your return. A mismatch sends up a red flag and causes IRS computers to spit out a bill. If you receive a 1099 for income that isn't yours or the income listed is incorrect, get the issuer to file a corrected form with the IRS.

2. Returns claiming the home-buyer credit.
First-time homebuyers and longtime homeowners who claimed the homebuyer credit should be prepared for IRS scrutiny. Make sure you submit proper documentation when taking this credit. First-time homebuyers have to attach a copy of their settlement statement to the return, and longtime homeowners should also attach documents showing prior ownership of a home, including records of property tax and insurance coverage. All claims for this credit are being screened. As of May 2010, more than 260,000 returns had been selected for correspondence audits (examinations done by mail rather than face-to-face) because filers did not attach the necessary documents to their tax returns. And those numbers will continue to grow.

Also, the IRS has ways of policing the recapture of the homebuyer credit. Generally, the credit is required to be recaptured if the home is sold within three years for homes brought in 2009 or 2010 and within 15 years for homes bought before 2009. The IRS is checking public real estate databases for sales of homes for which the credit was taken.

3. Claiming large charitable deductions.
This comes up again and again because the IRS has found abuse on audit, especially with those taking larger deductions. We all know that charitable contributions are a great write-off and help you to feel all warm and fuzzy inside. However, if your charitable deductions are disproportionately large compared to your income, it raises a red flag. That's because the IRS can tell what the average charitable donation is for a person in your tax bracket. Also, if you don't get an appraisal for donations of valuable property or if you fail to file Form 8283 for donations over $500, the chances of audit increase. Be sure you keep all your supporting documents, including receipts for cash and property contributions made during the year, and abide by the documentation rules. And attach Form 8283 if required.

4. Home office deduction.
The IRS is always very interested in this deduction, primarily because it has a pretty high adjustment rate on audit. This is because history has shown that many people who claim a home office don't meet all the requirements for properly taking the deduction, and others may overstate the benefit. If you qualify, you can deduct a percentage of your rent, real estate taxes, utilities, phone bills, insurance, and other costs that are properly allocated to the home office. That's a great deal. However, in order to take this write-off, the space must be used exclusively and on a regular basis as your principal place of business. That makes it difficult to claim a guest bedroom or children's playroom as a home office, even if you also use the space to conduct your work. Exclusive use means a specific area of the home is used only for trade or business, not also where the family watches TV at night. Don't be afraid to take the home-office deduction if you're otherwise entitled to it. Risk of audit should not keep you from taking legitimate deductions. If you have it and can prove it, then use it.

5. Business meals, travel and entertainment.
Schedule C is a treasure trove of tax deductions for self-employeds. But it's also a gold mine for IRS agents, who know from past experience that self-employeds tend to claim excessive deductions. Most under-reporting of income and overstating of deductions are done by those who are self-employed. And the IRS looks at both higher-grossing sole proprietorships as well as smaller ones.

Big deductions for meals, travel and entertainment are always ripe for audit. A large write-off here will set off alarm bells, especially if the amount seems too large for the business. Agents know that many filers slip in personal meals here or fail to satisfy the strict substantiation rules for these expenses. To qualify for meals or entertainment deductions, you must keep detailed records generally documenting the following for each expense: amount, place, persons attending, business purpose and nature of discussion or meeting. Also, receipts are required for expenditures over $75 or any expense for lodging while traveling away from home. Without proper documentation, your deduction is toast.

6. Claiming 100% business use of vehicle
Another area that is ripe for IRS review is use of a business vehicle. When you depreciate a car, you have to list on Form 4562 what percentage of its use during the year was for business. Claiming 100% business use for an automobile on Schedule C is red meat for IRS agents. They know that it's extremely rare that an individual actually uses a vehicle 100% of the time for business, especially if no other vehicle is available for personal use. IRS agents are trained to focus on this issue and will closely scrutinize your records. Make sure you keep very detailed mileage logs and precise calendar entries for the purpose of every road trip. Sloppy recordkeeping makes it easy for the revenue agent to disallow your deduction. As a reminder, even if you use the IRS' standard mileage rate to deduct your business vehicle costs, ensure that you are not also claiming actual expenses for maintenance, insurance and other out-of-pocket costs. The IRS has found filer noncompliance in this area as well and will look for this.

7. Claiming a loss for a hobby activity.
Your chances of “winning” the audit lottery increase if you have wage income and file a Schedule C with large losses. And, if your Schedule C loss-generating activity sounds like a hobby...horse breeding, car racing, and such...the IRS pays even more attention. It's issued guidelines to its agents on how to sniff out those who improperly deduct hobby losses. Large Schedule C losses are audit bait, but reporting losses from activities in which it looks like you might be having a good time is just asking for IRS scrutiny.

Tax laws don't allow you to deduct hobby losses on Schedule C; however, you do have to report any income earned from your hobbies. In order to claim a hobby loss, your activity must be entered into and conducted with the reasonable expectation of making a profit. If your activity generates profit three out of every five years (or two out of seven years for horse breeding), the law presumes you're in business to make a profit, unless the IRS establishes to the contrary. If audited, the IRS is going to make you prove you have a legitimate business and not a hobby. So, make sure you run your activity in a business-like manner and can provide supporting documents for all expenses.

8. Cash businesses.
Small business owners, especially those in cash-intensive businesses...taxi drivers, car washes, bars, hair salons, restaurants and the like...are an easy target for IRS auditors. The agency is well aware that those who primarily receive cash in their business are less likely to accurately report all of their taxable income. The IRS wants to narrow the tax gap, and history has shown that cash-based businesses are a good source of audit adjustments. It has a new guide for agents to use when auditing cash intensive businesses, telling how to interview owners and noting various indicators of unreported income.

9. Failure to report a foreign bank account.
The IRS is intensely interested in people with offshore accounts, especially those in tax havens. U.S. tax authorities have had some recent success in trying to get foreign banks (such as UBS in Switzerland) to disclose information on U.S. account holders. Also, the IRS had a voluntary compliance program where people came in and reported their foreign bank accounts and foreign assets in exchange for lesser penalties than they would have otherwise been subject to. The IRS has learned a lot from these probes.

Failure to report a foreign bank account can lead to severe penalties, and the IRS has made this issue a top priority. Make sure that if you have any such accounts, you properly report them when you file your return. Keep in mind, though, that if you have never previously reported the foreign bank account on your return, and you decide to do so for the first time in 2010, that might also look suspicious to the IRS.

10. Engaging in currency transactions.
The IRS gets many reports of cash transactions in excess of $10,000 involving banks, casinos, car dealers and other businesses, plus suspicious activity reports from banks and disclosures of foreign accounts. A recent report by Treasury inspectors concluded that these currency transaction reports are a valuable source of audit leads for sniffing out unreported income. The IRS agrees and it will make greater use of these forms in its audit process. So if you are a person who makes large cash purchases or deposits, be prepared for IRS scrutiny. Also, beware that banks and other institutions file reports on suspicious activities that appear to avoid the currency transaction rules (such as persons depositing $9,500 cash one day and an additional $9,500 cash two days later).

11. Math errors.
One of the biggest reasons that people receive a letter from the IRS is because of mathematical mistakes they make on their tax returns. If you make an error in your favor, you are going to hear from the tax man, and there is a greater risk of the IRS pulling the whole return for audit. So take time to ensure all your calculations are correct. Even though math errors may not lead to a full-blown audit, it's always best to remain under the radar of IRS computers.

12. Taking higher-than-average deductions.
If deductions on your return are disproportionately large compared to your income, the IRS audit formulas take this into account when selecting returns for examination. Screeners then pull the most questionable returns for review. But if you've got the proper documentation for your deduction, don't be scared to claim it. There's no reason to ever pay the IRS more tax than you actually owe.


Posted by Gary Bussard on April 1st, 2011 12:02 PMPost a Comment (0)

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March 31st, 2011 3:27 PM

Treasuries and mortgages doing better early this morning. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims saw a decline of 6K filings from last week, however last week's claims were revised from 282K to 394K. Continuing claims were down 51K to 3.714 mil but as with the claims continuing claims were revised from 3.721 mil last week to 4.22 mil in the revision. The 4 wk average also increased to 394,250 frm 391.000 based on the revisions. The claims report today is data collected after the BLS gathered the data for tomorrow's monthly employment report.

Next up this morning, the March Chicago purchasing managers index, expected at 70.0 frm 71.2 in Feb, was 70.6. The new orders component at 74.5 frm 75.9, the employment index at 65.6 frm 59.8 the highest read since Dec 1983 and the prices pd for materials at 83.4 frm 81.2, the highest since July 2008. Employment and prices are more evidence that the economy is improving along with inflation concerns. However, there was little reaction to the report, treasuries and mortgages held steady with small price gains and the stock market unchanged.

Finally today, Feb factory orders were expected to be up 0.4%, were down 0.1% and Jan revised to +3.3% frm 3.1%.

In Europe inflation data was stronger than expected; in the 17-nation euro region inflation increased to 2.6% in March from 2.4% in February, European Union estimates showed today. That’s the fastest pace since October 2008, and exceeds the ECB’s 2.0% limit for a fourth month. Economists had forecast inflation to hold steady. Next week the ECB will meet to discuss increasing its base lending rate, the inflation data today further increases the chance ECB will increase rates. Following moves in China, Brazil, Russia and India base lending rates are moving higher. In the US so far, the Fed still holds that inflation is not an immediate problem and plans to continue the easing move of buying $600B of treasuries. Whether or not inflation is about to click in, the bond market will face a huge hill to climb keeping long term rates including mortgages at or below the present levels. Fed officials are increasingly more divided on ending QE 2 sooner and less buying than originally intended; Bernanke however appears to be holding with completing the entire $600B buying that will conclude at the end of June.

After all the data this morning the rate markets holding better than we would have thought given the strong Chicago PM index and inflation increase out of Europe. The stock market holding unchanged. Technically the 10 yr held 3.50% on Tuesday giving traders a little opportunity but overall the bond market still holds a bearish outlook for rates. The rest of the session will be setting up for tomorrow's employment report with estimates still for an increase of 200K jobs and the unemployment rate unchanged at 8.9%. If floating stay close today; normally we do not like having a market position into employment as it is too volatile.



Posted by Gary Bussard on March 31st, 2011 3:27 PMPost a Comment (0)

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March 29th, 2011 1:39 PM
Treasuries and mortgages were mostly flat yesterday with mortgage prices about .09 bp better. This morning the 10 yr note off a little at 9:00 with mortgage prices down .09 bp. Stock indexes yesterday were slightly lower, this morning opening a little better. Overall since Friday's closes markets are relatively unchanged. At 9:00 the Case/Shiller home prices were weaker as expected; the 20 city home prices fell 0.2%, yr/yr -3.1%, the biggest year-over-year decrease since December 2009; the 10 city prices yr/yr down 2.0%. Estimates for the price change for the 20 cities ranged from declines of 3.7% to 2.4%, according to the forecasts of 29 economists Media makes some noise over the monthly report; it is two months old and unless you live in the 20 cities it is meaningless, real estate is a local issue.

At 10:00 a more important data point; the Mar consumer confidence index from the Conference Board. Forecasts were for confidence to have slipped from 70.4 in Feb to 65 in March, as reported at 63.4 frm 72.0 revised from 70.4. The present situation index better at 36.9 frm 33.8 in Feb, expectations index at 81.1 frm 97.5 and the inflation index at 6.7 frm 5.6 in Feb, the highest reading since Oct 2008 but still anemic.

This afternoon at 1:00 Treasury will sell $35B of 5 yr notes, yesterday's $35B of 2 yr notes was so-so, not bad but not strongly bid either. Today's 5 yr may be another one that is not as strong as we would like to see, the 5 yr sector of the yield curve has been the weakest for the last couple of weeks. The 5 yr is at its highest yield in the past three weeks so that may entice investors some.

St Louis Fed Pres Bullard out again with comments that the Fed may be able to cut $100B from the QE 2 $600B treasury buying that is scheduled to be completed at the end of June. Bullard has been generally opposed to the QE by the Fed. Fed officials have purchased $1.7 trillion of mortgage debt and Treasuries through March 2010 to pull the U.S. out of the recession. The Fed’s second round of purchases has come under fire from Republican leaders in Congress who say it risks inflating asset-price bubbles and stoking inflation. “One of the things that I am concerned about is that the policy is so easy right now, that we have to get started on the process of going back to normal because it will take a long time to do that,” he said.

Debate is increasing within the Fed about when to end its support through quantative easing. Various Fed officials are saying the easing must continue as the economic recovery is still fragile while others want it ended soon and that the Fed should begin tightening to fend off inflation which so far isn't being seen. In Europe however the ECB is about to start tightening and increasing rates following China, Brazil, India and Russia. Hard to handicap at the moment but it is increasingly unlikely interest rates in the US will decline and more likely begin to creep higher.

After trading weaker this morning, by 9:45 the 10 yr note moved back to unchanged and mortgages off .12 bp at 9:00 were unchanged. The stock market opened a little better but backed off and went negative at 9:45 supporting the move up in interest rate prices. Likely to be quiet this morning until we get the results of how the 5 yr auction went. The MBS prices below are at 9:30, since then prices improved from -3/32 to +3/32 at 9:45 a gain of .18 bp frm initial pricing by lenders.


Posted by Gary Bussard on March 29th, 2011 1:39 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Safe Ways to Bank With Your Smart Phone

Follow these steps to lower the risk of having your personal information stolen.

Using your smart phone to check your bank account balance or deposit a check is convenient. But is it safe?

Hackers are getting better at finding ways to tap into smart phones and capture people’s account numbers and other personal information. However, there are ways to lower your risk of becoming a victim, says Michael Gregg, a cyber security expert and founder of Superior Solutions. Here are his tips:

Don’t use public Wi-Fi to access accounts online. Use your phone provider’s network, instead, because it’s more difficult for hackers to tap into it. Public Wi-Fi connections, on the other hand, are easily compromised not just by savvy cybercriminals but by anyone who downloads a free program, which allows users to see what others are doing online and log onto their accounts as them.

Watch out for smishing (fake text messages). If you get a text message supposedly from your financial institution warning you that there may be a problem with your account, don’t click on any links or call a number in the message. The link could take you to a phony site with malicious software that will give criminals access to your phone. And the number could connect you with scammers who are trying to collect your account information. Go directly to your bank’s Web site to check your account or to get a customer service number. And if you get a text message asking you to download a security update for your phone, don’t be fooled. Smart phone makers don’t send out security updates by text message, Gregg says.

Be careful where you browse. Go to sites you know to conduct financial transactions. And before downloading any banking applications, check your financial institution’s site to make sure it offers one. Apple puts all apps for the iPhone through serious scrutiny, but other smart phone makers do not. A year ago, more than 50 fraudulent mobile banking apps appeared in the Android marketplace and were removed once they were discovered -- after many had bought and downloaded the apps.

Don’t jailbreak your iPhone. You’ll lose your security mechanisms, Gregg says, if you tamper with your iPhone so it can run on another service provider’s network or download additional apps.


Posted by Gary Bussard on March 28th, 2011 12:43 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Last Week in Review: Europe and the Treasury Department impacted Bonds. Find out what it all means to home loan rates.

Forecast for the Week: This week will be busy from start to finish... but the biggest news will hit on Friday. Read below to learn why.

Last Week in Review

"It’s not a matter of IF, but WHEN!" That old adage proved true last week as the fiscal problems in Europe came back to roost as predicted - even after being overshadowed recently by news from Japan and the Middle East.

Despite all the focus on government debt in Europe, it’s important to note that the problems are more than just financial; there is also a ton of political capital at risk. The stronger and more fiscally conservative Euro member countries like Germany and France do not want to pick up the tab for poor performing countries like Ireland, Greece, Portugal and many others standing in line behind them. And as news flows out of Europe - either good or bad - Mortgage Bonds and home loan rates here in the US will move in sympathy.

One news item that pressured Bonds lower last week was word that inflation in the United Kingdom (UK) jumped to the highest level in two years in February. Remember, inflation is the archenemy of Bonds, and inflation around the globe seeps into the US.

In fact, we’re already seeing it as Producer Prices (which look at wholesale inflation) are running at very hot levels... with prices up 3.3% in just the last three months. If pricing pressures don't recede for producers of goods and services, companies will have one of two choices:

Either: Absorb the higher cost of goods - and, thereby, hurt earnings growth

Or: Pass those increased costs onto consumers - thereby, creating consumer inflation

Both of those scenarios would be bad for Stocks and Bonds. And since home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Backed Securities - which are a type of Bond - those scenarios would also be bad for home loan rates.

Speaking of Mortgage Backed Securities, last week the Treasury Department announced it is going to begin selling some of its massive Mortgage Backed Securities holdings. This is important to anyone looking to purchase or refinance a home. That’s because this announcement immediately pushed Bond prices significantly lower, as Traders tried to get their own positions sold. Think of it as a financial game of musical chairs... in which no one wants to be the last one standing with a mitt full of Mortgage Backed Securities. This isn’t the last we’ll hear about this - and since home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Backed Securities, this creates the potential for home loan rates to rise in the near future.

Fortunately, home loan rates are still at very attractive levels for now, despite the Bond market taking a hit for most of last week. So if you’ve been thinking about purchasing or refinancing a home, this is the time to see how you can benefit before rates possibly move higher. Because as bad as it was to lose some Bond pricing in the last few days, prices could move significantly worse depending on how they hold on to technical support.

For more information on what this means and how it may impact you or someone you know, call or email today. I’ll be happy to explain the situation and offer advice based on your unique situation.

Forecast for the Week

This week will be busy from start to finish... but the biggest news will hit on Friday!

Right away Monday morning we’ll see the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, which is the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation. And as stated above, inflation is the archenemy of Bonds - which means it’s also bad for home loan rates.
We’ll also see a new report Monday morning on Pending Home Sales, which comes after last week’s disappointing reports on Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales.
This week, we’ll gain new insight on consumers - with the Personal Spending and Personal Income reports on Monday as well as the Consumer Confidence report on Tuesday.
Manufacturing will also be in the news with Thursday’s release of the Chicago PMI, which reports on manufacturing in Chicago and is a good indicator of overall economic activity.
But the big news to watch this week relates to employment, which kicks off Wednesday with the ADP National Employment Report on non-farm private employment.
Next up is another round of Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday. Last week’s report indicated that Jobless Claims are improving on a weekly basis, but at a snail's pace and not enough to make a meaningful dent in our stubbornly high unemployment rate.
Finally, the busy week culminates with the highly anticipated Jobs Report on Friday. This report features new data regarding job growth and the unemployment rate - needless to say, this report can be a big market mover!
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. 

Bonds and home loan rates took a negative turn last week, due in large part to pressure from inflation concerns and a rebound in the Stock market. However, rates are still attractive - making this an opportune time to take action for people looking to purchase or refinance a home before rates potentially worsen further.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Mar 25, 2011)


Posted by Gary Bussard on March 28th, 2011 12:41 PMPost a Comment (0)

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March 22nd, 2011 1:05 PM
The rate markets opened weaker today following selling yesterday. At 9:00 mortgage prices off 7/32 (.22 bp) frm the close yesterday, the 10 yr note -8/32 at 3.35% +2 bp. Not much new in the news from Libya and Japan; the coalition forces have bombed and missiled key cities in Libya trying to weaken Qaddafi forces (or is it Gadhafi, Gaddafi, Kaddafi, or Kaddafy). One US F 15 went down but not by fire, both pilots are safe. Aerial strikes enabled rebel forces to push out from their eastern stronghold of Benghazi. The countries involved in the attacks, Britain, France and the US are now debating who should lead the remainder of the intervention.

In Japan the reactors are still a problem but haven't worsened. The debate in markets has now shifted to how Japan will recover; there is an increasing but fragile view growing in markets that Japan is a buy in terms of equities. Japan will rebuild and recover according to huge investor Warren Buffett. Analysts from The Street are falling in line that the global economic impact won't be as serious as was thought at the onset of the earthquakes and tsunami. It isn't a slam dunk but with Buffett saying he is investing in the country the rest of the lemmings may fall in line and march to the same tune. Still very much a moving target however. The biggest hurdle we can see is electric power, Japan has lost a huge amount of power supply that won't be replaced quickly. Prime Minister Naoto Kan yesterday said there’s “light at the end of the tunnel” in the nation’s battle to avert a nuclear meltdown at a crippled power plant, which threatened a deeper shock to the nation’s consumers.

European Central Bank officials indicated the economic uncertainty caused by Japan’s earthquake may not deter them from raising interest rates next month. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet told the European Parliament he has “nothing to add” to his March 3 remarks, when he said policy makers may raise the benchmark rate from a record low of 1.0% at their next meeting in April.

The stock market opened relatively unchanged ahead of 10:00 data on housing prices and regional manufacturing from the Richmond Fed.

At 10:00 FHFA reported Jan housing prices fell 0.3% frm Dec; Dec was revised from -0.3% to -1.0%. Yr/yr housing prices declined 3.9%.

Also at 10:00 the Richmond Fed manufacturing index; the index fell to 20 frm 25, the reaction cut the losses in treasuries in half and pushed stock indexes down.

Although so far today market volatility is subdued or a change, market volatility will continue to remain high. Not the kind of market environment that is conducive to taking risks unless one has a huge deep pocket. Sentiment changes rapidly on any news headline. We are most outwardly concerned about Japan and Libya but there is a lot to be concerned with especially in the overall Mideast region. Protests are increasing in many of the countries in the area; Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, Egypt, Tunisia, Turkey, and the list is growing. So far nothing serious is building but it is being closely monitored.

The outlook for US interest rates has not changed with Japan and Libya in the picture; interest rates in the US are going to head higher. Rates in China increasing, in India increasing, in Europe increasing; the Fed is close to being done with QE 2 buying $600B of treasuries, inflation fears are on the rise in most of the world while here it hasn't yet spread out of food and energy components it is only a matter of time before all prices begin to edge up. Not much inflation but with the 10 yr note at 3.35% and historically low there will be no hesitancy by investors dumping long term fixed income investments. It may be next month or six months but rates will increase.


Posted by Gary Bussard on March 22nd, 2011 1:05 PMPost a Comment (0)

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March 21st, 2011 12:57 PM
Treasuries and mortgages opened weaker this morning. The stock indexes prior to the open were trading higher. Same story, if equities are better the rate markets will be softer. I Japan a couple of reactors are said to be closer to being controlled but now another reactor that had been stable is spewing out steam filled with radiation. In Libya the UN forces bombed Qaddafi forces over the weekend helping rebels but so far Qaddafi remains defiant and reports that he is taking citizens a human shields into his compound keeping UN forces from taking him out. Crude and gold are higher today on the Libyan situation.

European stocks rallied as Japan’s nuke crisis eased and American officials said its allies are in full control of Libya’s airspace following two days of airstrikes. U.S. index futures and Asian shares advanced. US stocks opening stronger on the same thinking, lemmings running again. No one actually knows a lot of detail about Japan's nuke problems, the government in Japan has never been completely forthcoming on problematic situations but at the moment it appears markets are relaxing a bit after panic equity selling erased all of the gains earned this year based on the S&P 500 index.

Oil is higher today on the Libyan and Mideast situations. Oil traders believe that Libya and the continual roiling in Mideast countries will lower supplies. Speculation in the oil markets isn't new, it has however reached another high water mark. Libyan output has fallen to less than 400,000 barrels a day; the country produced 1.59 million barrels a day in January, according to estimates. Libyan oil production halted by the country’s civil war is likely to remain suspended for the rest of this year according to some analysts. In the Mideast Bahrain’s government declared a three-month state of emergency on March 15 after troops from Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf states arrived to support the administration in quelling more than a month of protests. Yemen’s President Ali Abdullah Saleh fired his cabinet yesterday after the deadliest crackdown in two months of unrest led officials close to him to resign in protest. At least 46 people were killed and hundreds injured earlier this week as police and pro-regime gunmen shot at protesters in the capital.

The Fed announced that it will sell its $142B MBS portfolio it acquired in the financial meltdown from AIG. It intends to sell $10B a month as long as market conditions can handle it. The Fed believes it will make a profit on the sales.

At 9:30 the DJIA opened +150; the 10 yr note at 9:29 was -10/32, at 9:33 -19/32. Mortgage prices at 9:29 -4/32, at 9:33 -9/32 (.28 bp).

The only data today; at 10:00 Feb existing home sales expected down 4.5% down 9.6% to 4.88 mil frm 5.40 mil in Jan, Jan sales were revised up to +3.4% frm +2.7%. The median sales price $156,100.00 the lowest since Apr 2002 and -5.2% frm Feb 2010; there is an 8.6 month supply at present dales rate an increase of 3.5%. 39% of sales in Feb were distressed properties the highest since Apr 2009. Not a good report but it didn't phase the stock indexes, the DJIA actually improved after the report.

This week's Economic Calendar:

Tuesday;

10:00 am FHFA housing price index (N/A)

Wednesday;

7:00 am Weekly MBA mortgage applications (N/A)

10:00 am Feb new home sales (+1.0%)

Thursday;

8:30 am weekly jobless claims (-1K to 384K; continuing claims 3.70 mil frm 3.706 mil)

Feb durable goods orders (+1.1%; ex transportation +1.8%)

Friday;

8:30 Final Q4 GDP (+2.9% frm 2.8% on the prelim last month)

9:55 am U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index (68.0 frm 68.2 at mid-month)

Economic data always is critical but now with the Japanese, Mideast and Libya issues traders are focusing more on those issues in terms of near term trading.

Lenders that set morning prices prior to 9:30 this morning are already contemplating re-pricing lower. Mortgages and treasures continue to decline as the stock market works higher.


Posted by Gary Bussard on March 21st, 2011 12:57 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Last Week in Review: Our thoughts continue to go out to people suffering in both Japan and the Middle East. Read on to learn how world events impacted the markets.

Forecast for the Week: The volatility is sure to continue, as will the barrage of news, including several reports that will tell us how our economic recovery is faring.

View: Have a home equity line of credit? Know if it is impacting your credit score unfairly? Check out important details below!

Last Week in Review

"It’s a small world after all..." That notion was especially evident last week, with both the news in Japan and the Middle East impacting our markets. Here’s what happened, and what the impact was on home loan rates.

The first thing to understand is the concept of "safe haven trading." At times of global unrest and uncertainty, like with last week’s nuclear crisis in Japan and the ongoing fighting in Libya, Traders will park their money in "safe" investments like our Bonds. And since Bonds such as Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) are tied to home loan rates, when Bond pricing improves, our home loan rates can improve... which is what we saw last week.

But it’s also important to understand how incredibly volatile this situation is. A "safe haven trade" is just that... a trade, which is short-term. Should events around the world become more stable, this safe haven trade can unwind very quickly... with Bond prices and home loan rates worsening as a result. This is similar to how the market reacted at the end of last week, when Libya declared a cease fire to fighting after the United Nations declared a no-fly zone.

Another thing to note is that Bonds and home loan rates are facing some additional headwinds that could hamper their improvement. First, if Japan sells some of their Treasury holdings to help finance the recovery and reconstruction, like they did in 1995 after the Kobe earthquake, this could spur a sell-off in Bonds overall, which would cause Bonds and home loan rates to worsen.

Second, we cannot overlook the impact of inflation... which is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates... both here and overseas. Not only is China struggling with inflation even though they have raised rates and tightened lending requirements multiple times over the past few months, but last week both our Producer Price Index (which measures inflation at the wholesale level) and our Consumer Price Index were hotter than expected.

The bottom line: If inflation is allowed to grow, it can be very difficult to rein in and control... and this will hinder improvement in home loan rates. And, if the situations in Japan and the Middle East stabilize or improve, we could see further unwinding of the "safe-haven" buying of US Bonds... which will also hinder improvement in home loan rates.

If you have been thinking about purchasing or refinancing a home, call or email me to learn more about how you can benefit. Or forward this newsletter on to someone you know who may benefit from today’s historically low rates.

Forecast for the Week

Continuing developments in world events are sure to impact the markets this week, but there are some important US economic reports to look for, too, including:

  • Monday’s Existing Home Sales Report and Wednesday’s New Home Sales Report for February - will they show improvement in the housing market?
  • We’ll get a read on the economic recovery with the Durable Goods Report on Thursday, which gives us an update on consumer and business buying behavior on big-ticket items that are designed to last for an extended period of time (i.e. televisions, appliances, vehicles, etc). It’s an interesting report, as people tend to hold back on these types of purchases when they are feeling a need to be extra conservative with their finances or feel insecure about their employment.
  • We’ll also get a read on the labor market with Thursday’s weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims Report. Last week’s Initial Jobless Claims were reported at 385,000, right smack at expectations, and show that the labor market is continuing to improve.
  • Friday will bring two additional reads on our economic recovery: The Consumer Sentiment Index and the Gross Domestic Product Report, which is the broadest measure of economic activity.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates improved due to the turmoil around the world, but they were unable to improve above a key technical level. I’ll be watching to see which way the markets move this week.


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Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Mar 18, 2011)
Japanese Candlestick Chart
The Mortgage Market Guide View...

Home Equity Lines of Credit and Your Credit Score

What You Need to Know and Do

Credit reports have always been important, but they’ve grown even more important in recent years. Now more than ever, you need to make sure you understand what’s on your credit report - and you need to know what steps you can take to improve your score.

For example, did you know that a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) can impact your credit score quite dramatically... and sometimes unfairly... depending on how it is reported?

Here’s What You Need to Know... and Do!

First, you need to know that HELOC’s are commonly reported by the three credit bureaus as revolving accounts. In reality however, they do not fall under the typical revolving terms, even though they are set up in the same way as a revolving account. That’s because HELOC’s are secured by an asset.

Here’s the Good News...

The Fair Credit Reporting act requires reporting agencies to report true and accurate information. So when a HELOC is reported as a revolving account, you can actually send a letter to the three credit bureaus asking them to change the type of account from "Revolving" to "Line of Credit" or "Other."

This way, the account will not be rated by the scoring system using the "Balance to Limit" ratio scenario - which can drop a credit score by as much as 75 points if the HELOC is maxed out to the limit of the available credit line.

A Final Word of Advice

If you do decide to send a letter, you should send it as a Certified Letter, along with a copy of the HELOC agreement. You may have to send the letters more than once, but persistence is the key to accomplishing a positive result with the bureaus.

This article was adapted from information provided by national credit expert Linda Ferrari, author of "THE BIG SCORE: Getting It and Keeping It, Buying Power for Life." Learn more and check out her credit resources at www.lindaferrari.com


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Economic Calendar for the Week of March 21-25, 2011

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of March 21 - March 25

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. March 21
10:00
Existing Home Sales
Feb
5.05M
5.36M
Moderate
Wed. March 23
10:00
New Home Sales
Feb
288K
284K
Moderate
Thu. March 24
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
3/19
384K
385K
Moderate
Thu. March 24
08:30
Durable Goods Orders
Feb
0.9%
3.2%
Moderate
Fri. March 25
08:30
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Q4
2.9%
2.8%
Moderate
Fri. March 25
08:30
GDP Chain Deflator
Q4
0.4%
0.4%
Moderate
Fri. March 25
10:00
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)
Mar
68.0
68.2
Moderate

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

Gary Bussard
10121 Paget Drive
St. Louis MO 63132


Posted by Gary Bussard on March 21st, 2011 12:54 PMPost a Comment (0)

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March 17th, 2011 12:40 PM
HAPPY ST. PATRICK'S DAY!


After two hard days of selling in the US stock market and buying of treasuries, this morning the equity markets are starting better while the bond and mortgage markets are declining in price. Market volatility continues and will continue for a week or two at least. Not much new out of Japan on the efforts to cool reactors, there are reports that electric power to the plants is proceeding but so far haven't gotten it done. In the meantime videos showing helicopters dropping water on the cooling polls has not shown any decline in radiation readings. Not better, but no worse either.


G-7 finance chiefs will hold talks on financial markets and Japan’s economy tomorrow, after the earthquake triggered a selloff in global stocks and drove the nation’s currency to a post World War II high.


Economic data today; weekly jobless claims were expected down 10K to 385K, as reported claims fell 16K to 385K after last week's claims were revised to 401K from 397K so right on target. Continuing claims fell to 3.71 mil frm 3.79 mil last week, the lowest continuing claims since Sept 2008. Also at 8:30 Feb CPI, the overall up 0.5% with the core (ex food and energy) up 0.2% also in line with forecasts. Yr/yr CPI +2.1%, ex food and energy +1.1%. Both reports had no market reaction. Economic data now is secondary to the Japan problems.


At 9:15 Feb industrial production expected up 0.6% was reported down 0.1%; Jan revised to +0.3% frm -0.1%. Feb capacity utilization increased to 76.3% frm 76.1% in Jan. No reaction to the two data points.


The DJIA opened +140 at 9:30; the 10 yr at 9:30 -13/32 3.25% +4 bp and mortgage prices -8/32 (.25 bp).


At 10:00 the Mar Philadelphia Fed business index was expected at 28.0 frm 35.9 in Feb; the index jumped to 43.4. The new orders component increased to 40.3 frm 23.7, prices pd 63.8 frm 67.2 and employment at 18.2 frm 23.6. Overall a solid report that generated a little additional bounce in the stock market; prior to the data the DJIA that opened +140 had fallen back to +112, the bounce took it back to +122 and added a little additional selling in bonds and mortgage markets.


The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced that today six financial institutions have repurchased Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) Capital Purchase Program (CPP) investments, delivering a total of $475 million in proceeds for taxpayers. With today’s transactions, the programs within TARP that provide direct financial support to banks are continuing to near profitability. Through repayments, dividends, interest and other income, taxpayers have now recovered more than 99% (approximately $244B) of the approximately $245B in total funds disbursed for TARP investments in banks. Treasury currently estimates that bank programs within TARP will ultimately provide a lifetime profit of nearly $20B to taxpayers.


Although the stock market opened stronger and the bond market a little lower in price, the day may be marked with continued volatility. As long as those reactors in Japan are not cooled and the threat of radiation spreading is not eliminated nothing has changed as far as safety moves and selling of stocks. That said, since last Thursday the DJIA has lost 600 points so a bounce today would not be abnormal as investors consider the longer term implications for the economy as Japan's economy will decline in the aftermath of earthquakes and tsunami.


Posted by Gary Bussard on March 17th, 2011 12:40 PMPost a Comment (0)

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March 16th, 2011 1:19 PM
Treasuries and mortgages opened flat this morning as did the stock indexes, but by 9:00 treasuries and mortgages doing slightly better and stock index futures lower on economic data at 8:30 and still a lot of uncertainty about Japan's problems and its eventual impact on global economies. Crude oil has traded down for the past few days, this morning crude is up over $1.50 at 9:00, gold is also up about $10.00 after heavy selling over the past few sessions. At 9:30 the DJIA opened -50, 30 yr mtgs +8/32 (.25 bp) and the 10 yr note +11/32 to 3.26%.

The Tokyo stock market improved overnight, up 6.5% after huge selling recently. The problems at the nuclear reactors in Japan are still a major concern. The number of deaths in the country is still undetermined, the impact on Japan's economy is still unquantified and its implications to other economies is unknown. Lot of discussions and opinions but nothing of substance that markets can get its arms around. It is going to weeks and maybe months to assess the longer term consequences from the tragedy; in the meantime US markets will likely continue with high degree of volatility. Another earthquake over night; 6.0 magnitude. Reports that many are leaving Tokyo continue to increase.

At 8:30 Feb housing starts were expected to be down about 4.0%; starts were down 22.5% as reported, the lowest start level since Mar 1984. Building permits were expected up 2.0%, they fell 8.2%. Jan starts were revised higher, to +18.4% frm +14.6%. Recent data on home construction has been extremely volatile as the data this morning clearly shows.

Feb producer price index was reported at 8:30; overall PPI jumped a huge 1.6%, more strong evidence that food and energy are going to impact consumer spending. When food and energy prices are left out PPI was up 0.2%. Yr/yr overall PPI +5.6% and ex food and energy +1.8%. The Fed, and therefore markets, still ignore what has always been very volatile food and energy prices when calculating inflation so its all good in the eyes of the Fed and the markets. The problem with that is that food and energy are no longer that volatile, both just continue to increase. At some point, and we don't have any idea when, markets will have to deal with it as consumer spending will be impacted and in turn will be a drag on economic growth. How much of drag and when it will begin to show up in the data we don't want to speculate.

Its Wednesday so we get the MBA weekly mortgage applications. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. The Refinance Index increased 0.9% from the previous week and is the highest Refinance Index recorded in the survey since December 2010. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.0% from one week earlier. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 4.9%. The four week moving average is up 1.6% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 6.6% for the Refinance Index. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 66.4% of total applications from 65.5% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 5.6% from 6.0% of total applications from the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.79% from 4.93%, with points increasing to 1.07 from 0.87 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. This is the lowest contract 30-year rate observed in the survey since the week ending January 14, 2011.The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.03% from 4.17%, with points decreasing to 0.85 from 1.15 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. This is the lowest contract 15-year interest rate observed in the survey since the week ending December 3, 2010.

Inflation in Europe continues to increase; inflation accelerated to the fastest in more than two years in February, increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. Inflation in the 17-nation euro region quickened to 2.4% from 2.3% in January. A week ago the ECB warned it may have to increase its base rate as inflation increases. Inflation is the fastest since October 2008 and exceeded the ECB’s 2 percent limit for a third month. Something to watch but at the moment all focus remains on Japan and safety moves into US treasuries continuing to push rates lower.

Treasuries and mortgages continue to improve with increased intraday volatility; the stock market is leading, yesterday the DJIA started down almost 300 points but ended -137 as it climbed out of its hole treasury and mortgage markets lost ground. Market volatility today remains high and must be monitored closely; we will and let you know if price worsening develops as it did yesterday.


Posted by Gary Bussard on March 16th, 2011 1:19 PMPost a Comment (0)

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The potential of a nuke meltdown increased overnight sending all investors running to cash. The Tokyo stock market with the Nikkei 225 (NKY) index posting its biggest two-day drop since 1987, while commodities slid and Treasuries jumped. Europe's equity markets all lower, in the US in pre-market trade at 8:30 had the DJIA down 278, crude oil down $3.85 and gold off $30.00. Conflicting reports that are steaming moment to moment out of Japan; earlier last night the Prime Minister was cautioning that a meltdown was increasing quickly, asking people to leave the area, tape up windows and/or stay inside. At 8:30 this morning Tokyo Electric Power Co. engineers at a nuclear plant restored water to safe levels, helping drive down radiation after residents within 30 kilometers (19 miles) were ordered inside to avoid contamination. “The radiation levels are above normal, but at most only about one-10th of a chest X-ray and are not harmful to the health,” the government said in a separate statement today.

Whether or not there will be a serious meltdown is an obvious concern but markets are beginning to realize that Japan's economy will be impaired for years in the process of re-building. The impact of one of the largest economies in the world being dragged down is still not fully understood by markets or the Fed. The Fed is meeting today in the scheduled FOMC meeting, talk already about the potential of another easing move resulting from the crisis. The Bank of Japan infused $183B into the financial system yesterday and another $83B today to support the system.

Yesterday the US markets appeared to have not taken the Japanese situation as seriously as we would have thought; the DJIA fell just 51 points while the Treasuries and mortgages hardly moved. Today with increased fears of a nuclear meltdown all markets are being impacted. Crude oil continues to fall on the idea that Japan's need for oil will decline as its economy grinds to almost a halt. Longer term however, crude will eventually increase as markets realize Japan won't have nuclear power for years to come. Gold also is declining, no one wants to hold anything but cash now; all commodities are lower this morning. The news out of Japan is conflicting, there is little understanding now as to the eventual impact for the global economies; today it is a run to cover many market positions.

More not so good news; German investor confidence unexpectedly fell for the first time in five months in March. Its confidence index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict developments six months in advance, declined to 14.1 from 15.7 in February. Economists had expected a gain to 15.9.

The troubles in the Mideast have been put in the back seat with Japan now the main focus; nevertheless things are not improving in the region. Troops from the Gulf Cooperation Council, including Saudi Arabia, crossed into Bahrain yesterday, the first cross-border intervention since a wave of popular uprisings swept through parts of the Arab world. Shiite protesters and Bahraini forces escalated Sunday, with more than 100 people injured as demonstrators demanded democracy through elections from their Sunni monarch.

Economic news here in the US this morning has been pushed to the side; the Mar NY Empire State manufacturing data this morning at 8:30 showed the overall index up to 17.5 frm 15.43, a little better than expected but with Japan it is already out-dated news. The sub components; new orders fell to an index read of 5.81 frm 11.80 in Feb, the employment component increased to 9.09 frm 3.61 and prices pd for materials increased to 53.25 from 45.78 (any index read over zero is considered expansion.

At 10:00 the Mar NAHB housing market index hit at 17, up 1 point from the past five months and was as expected.

Later this afternoon the FOMC meeting will conclude with the usual short policy statement. The Fed is unlikely to have much comment in the statement regarding the current economic crisis that is escalating out of Japan. Expect a lot of debate in the coming days over whether or not the Fed may have to initiate another easing move of some kind. It is too soon for any definitive decisions, the Fed will wait for more news and analysis on the impact on the US economy before committing to any additional easing.

Everything happening now in the world is supportive to US treasuries and therefore mortgage markets. Early this morning the 10 yr note yield fell to 3.23% down from 3.37% at the close yesterday. By 9:30 the 10 yr rate had increased to 3.26%. The equity markets are trading lower today with investors and traders scrambling to market neutral positions or simply selling. Yesterday the equity market opened soft with the DJIA off 140 points but by the end of the session the DJIA ended down just 51 points; today may be a lot different pending continual news coming out of Japan on their nuke problem. This morning the DJIA opened down 185, the 10 yr +30/32 at 3.26% -11 bp and mortgage prices up 19/32 (.59 bp); within five minutes of the open the DJIA traded down 293 on a news flash Japan suffered another 6.0 earthquake.

It is all happening rapidly this morning, no one wants to wait to see facts, the markets are highly volatile and emotional at the beginning of the day. Today may be exceptionally volatile as the news unfolds. Already in the first 30 minutes of trading in equities the indexes are well off their lows and the bond and mortgage markets have backed off their best levels so far.


Posted by Gary Bussard on March 15th, 2011 3:48 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Forecast for the Week

"Double dose!" is the phrase of the week, as we’ll see multiple reports this week focusing on the same segments of the economy:

We’ll start off with some big news Tuesday, when the Federal Reserve holds its FOMC meeting and releases its Policy Statement later that afternoon. As always, what the Fed says about the economy, inflation, and its Quantitative Easing program could have an impact on home loan rates.
There’s a double dose of real estate news with Wednesday’s release of data on Housing Starts and Building Permits in February. Check back with me on Wednesday to get the breakdown of how the news actually arrived!
There’s also a double dose of manufacturing news. Tuesday’s Empire State Index looks at New York State’s manufacturing sector and is a good gauge of manufacturing overall, while on Thursday we’ll also see another important manufacturing report in the Philadelphia Fed Index.
A double dose of inflation news also comes our way this week with Wednesday’s Producer Price Index Report, which highlights inflation at the wholesale level, and Thursday’s Consumer Price Index Report, measuring inflation for consumers like you and me! Remember: The Fed is intent on creating inflation, which is unfriendly to home loan rates, and signs of inflation from these reports could be unfavorable for rates.
Thursday we’ll get a read on employment with the weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report. Initial Jobless claims rose 26,000 in the latest week to 397,000, which was above expectations but still below that psychological barrier of 400,000.
Finally, on Thursday we’ll see a double dose of manufacturing data with the release of reports on Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production in February. The capacity utilization rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use. If the utilization rate climbs too high it can lead to inflationary bottlenecks in production. The Federal Reserve watches this report closely and decides how to set interest rates on the basis of whether production constraints are threatening to cause inflation.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.



Posted by Gary Bussard on March 14th, 2011 11:34 AMPost a Comment (0)

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March 14th, 2011 11:33 AM
Last Week in Review

"And now... the rest of the story" - Paul Harvey. With his famous line, Paul Harvey pointed out for years that there’s more to every story - and often those hidden details influence what happened. With that in mind, let’s look at the “rest of the story” behind last week’s news items, which had alternating impacts on Bond prices and home loan rates.

First, let us start by sending our thoughts and prayers to the families affected by last week’s earthquake and tsunami in Japan. The earthquake was a magnitude of 8.9 - the strongest in 140 years. The earthquake in Japan and its damage created some counterintuitive market reactions.

One would think that US Treasuries and Mortgage Bonds would have traded much higher, as often is the case with devastating natural events that drive money into "safe haven" trades. But that wasn't the case. Why? The answer is that buying of Treasuries and Mortgage Bonds as a safe haven trade was offset by the Japanese selling some of their own massive holdings of Treasuries and Mortgage Bonds, in order to repatriate money back to their country during the time of emergency. Considering that Japan is the second largest holder of U.S. debt at $877 Billion, selling just a tiny position of their holdings has an impact on Bond prices.

In addition, Bond prices traded in very volatile fashion last week after getting jockeyed around on news out of Saudi Arabia that police had opened fire on protesters with rubber bullets. Let’s look at how this influenced the markets in a different way than one might at first imagine.

Like other recent uprisings in the Middle East, Saudi protesters are looking for more democracy, the right to elect public officials, greater civil rights, freedom of expression, more women's rights and a higher minimum wage. Interestingly, however, oil fell last week, despite the news. Why? Shouldn't unrest in Saudi Arabia - the world's largest oil producer, push prices higher? Yes, but that news was offset by the earthquake in Japan. That’s because Japan is a huge importer of oil... and the market senses that the earthquake and subsequent tsunami may create an economic slowdown and diminish the demand for oil.

Seeing that Mortgage Bonds are lower - even in the face of weak Stocks and enormous uncertain global news - tells us that the gains in Bonds are not coming with a lot of conviction and Traders are selling into this strength. This is because a lot of headwinds remain for Bonds - like inflation abroad, rising government debt and continued QE2 purchases.

This is a good example of why it is important to work with a mortgage professional that understands not only what was reported in the news, but also how the many cross currents may have alternating effects on everything from Bonds, Stocks, Oil to the US Dollar.


Posted by Gary Bussard on March 14th, 2011 11:33 AMPost a Comment (0)

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March 14th, 2011 11:31 AM

Good Morning!

Treasuries and mortgages opened a little better this morning with the key stock indexes lower. The world still focused on Japan's earthquakes and Tsunami. There are now three nuke plants in jeopardy of a meltdown and the Tokyo stock market was hammered hard last night, the largest loss in 2 yrs, down 6.0%. Crude oil continues its decline on continued belief demand will decline in Japan. There are no economic reports scheduled today, the calendar has data points mid-week however. This week is marked by tomorrow's FOMC meeting with the short policy statement out at 2:15 Tuesday afternoon.



This Week's Economic calendar:

Tuesday;

8:30 am Empire State manufacturing index (17.0 frm 15.43 in Feb)

Feb import and export prices (N/A)

10:00 am NAHB housing market index (17 frm 16)

2:15 pm FOMC policy statement

Wednesday;

7:00 am weekly MBA mortgage applications

8:30 am Feb housing starts and permits (starts -4.4%, permits +2.0%)

Feb PPI (+0.6%; core +0.2%)

Q4 current account balance (-$110.0B)

Thursday;

8:30 am weekly jobless claims -10K to 387K; con't claims 3.750 mil frm 3.771 mil)

Feb CPI (+0.4%; core +0.1%)

9:15 am Feb industrial production (+0.6%)

Feb capacity utilization (76.5% frm 76.1%)

10:00 am Feb leading economic indicators (+0.9%)

Mar Philadelphia Fed business index (28.0 frm 35.9 in Feb)

The DJIA opened down 65 at 9:30, the 10 yr note +10/32 at 3.36% -3 bp and holding below 3.40% since last Thursday. Technically the l0 yr note and mortgage markets are breaking some resistance levels.

Japan's woes are filtering around the world; crude lower on the belief demand in Japan will decline, emerging market equity markets rallying on re-building boom that will be huge in Japan. Most all attention now is on Japan's problems but the Mideast is still out there with continued protests in a number of states in the region while Qaddafi is waging war with protesters in the oil region and ports. In Europe a week ago comments from the ECB that it would be considering increasing interest rates next month to head off increasing inflation; now that looks less likely, England didn't increase rates and there are voices calling for the ECB to hold rates low to keep recovery moving forward and less concern over inflation increasing.

The rest of the day today for the bond and mortgage markets will be dependent on how equity markets trade; so far the key indexes are weaker but not much. Tomorrow's FOMC meeting should keep investors and traders from major moves. The Fed will keep interest rates at their present levels, talk about concerns over inflation, still worry over the strength of the US recovery with slow improvement in employment and no signs of recovery in the housing sector.


Posted by Gary Bussard on March 14th, 2011 11:31 AMPost a Comment (0)

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