"INFLATION IS WHEN YOU PAY $15 FOR THE $10 HAIRCUT YOU USED TO GET FOR $5 WHEN YOU HAD HAIR." - Sam Ewing. And regardless of how much hair you have these days... one thing we can watch to help a get sense of where rates are going is inflation.
Right now, the headline numbers in the US show little inflation overall... but we are already seeing significant inflation in particular items like commodities, food, and oil - which are being driven by a weak US Dollar, and increasing demand from emerging countries like China and India. In addition, the global market reacted late last week to higher-than-expected inflation in China. This is important to us because Bonds and home loan rates hate inflation, no matter where the whiff of it comes from.
Here’s why. Think of inflation as a hot air balloon and rates as the basket under that balloon. As the balloon (or inflation) rises, the basket (or rates) must rise as well.
So, if inflation moves higher in China, their government has to raise rates to fight inflation. And if rates move higher in China, global investors seeking the highest yield will move away from the relatively meager returns seen in US Bonds - and move their Bond buying money into juicier yields found abroad.
There are so many opinions by so many smart people on both sides of the inflation argument, but right now it is all about what the Bond market thinks. And the recent market action shows just how quickly sentiment in the market can change. Remember, it was just a few weeks ago that fears and whispers of deflation helped the Bond market - and home loan rates - improve.
But now with the Fed intent on avoiding deflation and in fact creating inflation through another round of Quantitative Easing (or QE2), the entire Bond market - including Mortgage Bonds - have began to react negatively. Remember, Quantitative Easing is the concept of the Fed becoming a buyer of Treasuries and Bonds, in a bid to stimulate the economy by:
While those goals may be good for the overall economy, we need to remember that all three are very unfriendly to Mortgage Bonds and home loan rates.
The good news is, despite ending the week worse than where they started, home loan rates are still near historic lows for the time being. If you or someone you know is looking to take advantage of low rates, now is the time. Please call or email me today to get started.
After a relatively slow schedule of economic reports last week, we’ll see some big reports over the next few days with the potential to really move the markets.
We’ll start off right away Monday morning with the Retail Sales report for October as well as a dose of manufacturing news in the Empire State Index, which looks at New York State’s manufacturing sector, and is a good gauge of manufacturing overall. On Thursday, we’ll also see the Philadelphia Fed Index, which is another important manufacturing report. Those two indices have the potential to impact the market, since they indicate the health of the manufacturing sector in the US.
Even more big news is headed our way on Tuesday with the Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures inflation at the wholesale level. Then, the very next day on Wednesday morning, we’ll see the Consumer Price Index (CPI) with a look at inflation at the consumer level. In light of last week’s news and the information described above, it will be important to see what these reports reveal - since inflation is the archenemy of Bonds and home loan rates.
Wednesday will also bring more housing industry news with reports on the number of Housing Starts and Building Permits in October.
The week of reports caps off on Thursday with the Initial Jobless Claims report. Last week’s report indicated that Initial Jobless Claims fell in the latest week to the lowest reading since July. Continuing Jobless Claims also moved lower. While those numbers showed modest improvements and are steps in the right direction, there is still a lot of wood to chop where jobs are concerned.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.
Some of the charts that monitor Bond activity can look complex - but they tell quite a story! In the chart below, pay attention to the downward trend for Bond prices (which means an upward trend for home loan rates) since November 3rd, which was when the Fed announced their QE2 plans. This chart shows us that Mortgage Bonds have traded sharply lower since the Fed Meeting and official QE2 announcement. Again, home loan rates are still at historically low levels for the time being, which means there’s still time to purchase or refinance a home and take advantage of the great rates. And it only takes a few minutes to get the process started – please feel free to get in touch with me, and pass on this newsletter to friends, family members, neighbors or coworkers that might benefit as well!
Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday, November 12, 2010)
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